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End Of The ICE-Age

EV ICE Battery Cost

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63 replies to this topic

#21 OFFLINE   fbov

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 12:57 PM

Remember when CDs arrived?  EVERYONE said records weren't going anywhere.  You know what?  They were gone in a blink of an eye....

Poor choice for an analogy... no shortage of sellers or new product

http://www.soundstag...CFcEkgQod8iYA5A

http://www.amazon.co...&node=372989011

 

and my favorite; a listening comparision on some top-notch audio gear:

http://www.audioholi...s-digital-audio

 

CDs weren't gone in the first blink of that eye. In the second blink, some folks realized they'd been hoodwinked by the digitial transition, and so vinyl lives on, as will fossil fuels for the forseeable future.

 

Not saying the market won't shift - it has to - but markets rarely make absolute shifts unless driven to it by external forces.

 

Have fun,

Frank









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#22 ONLINE   ptjones

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 12:59 PM

Here is a Link to Big Truck Turbine/Hybrid:   http://www.hybridcar...g-fuel-savings/

44mpg WOW!  Walmart made a AeroSemi. :)

 

Paul



#23 OFFLINE   Adrian_L

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 01:22 PM

Ok have it your way.....

 

Replace "record" with "carburettor" and "CD" with "fuel injection".

 

I think the point of my analogy was clear enough. 



#24 OFFLINE   Adrian_L

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 01:26 PM

Better one:

 

Everyone (incl. pro photographers) said film would be with us forever when digital photography was introduced.   When's the last time you loaded a roll of 35mm in your camera?



#25 OFFLINE   stevedebi

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 02:04 PM

edmunds did a cross country thing in a tesla   23 stops for charging

 

Distance: 3,331.9 miles
    Total time: 67 hours, 21 minutes.
    Driving time: 52 hours, 41 minutes
    Average driving speed: 63.2 mph
    Total Supercharger plug-In time: 14 hours, 40 minutes
    Average Supercharger plug-in time: 38.3 minutes
    Number of Other Stops: 0
    Total energy consumption: 1.06 Megawatt-hours
    Total fuel cost: $0 (thanks to Tesla's free Superchargers, available to all Tesla owners)

 

figure with our cmax,  you'd get 500 miles per tank on highway milage so thats  6.6 stops for fuel (90 minutes).      figure by the time  you stop for food, potty add in another 6 more stops (2 hours)

The stops for food, potty, etc. don't count since they would presumably be the same for both vehicles. The C-max will actually do around 550 to 600 at highway speeds. My VW Passat TDI will do nearly 700 if I want to push it.

 

But currently, the bigger issue is where those charging stations are located. The ICE simply can go more places. Unless oil is depleted such that additional charging stations are viable, they simply will not be there in enough places. Yes, you can go cross country on some interstates, but try taking a 100 mile side trip and the picture becomes different.



#26 OFFLINE   stevedebi

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 02:07 PM

We're still in the "Model T" phase of electric technology.   Obviously things are going to be far different in 20 years.   There's exciting stuff going on in Europe with heavy-duty vehicles and diesel/electric technology.   But if you think you're going to be driving an Escalade with a massive V8 in 2035---think again.

It simply doesn't make sense to spend loads of money on fossil fuel technology when newer technology provides massive savings.  Coca-cola are on the right track and other companies will jump on board as well. 

Well, an Escalade is a luxury car, and folks with money will buy what they want, assuming the fuel is available at all (which it will be).

 

Hybrid technology has been powering trains for a long time and makes sense for some heavier applications. But I'm not convinced that alternate fuels (not biofuels) would not be developed if indeed oil became scarce.

 

It is not about the technology, it is about the practicality of charging, and infrastructure. I think a lot of folks forget about the Western states, with their large distances between areas. What works in urban LA won't be so good in rural Utah.



#27 OFFLINE   Marc Smith

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 02:09 PM

Steve

 

I just did a 2500 mile trip to florida.  90% highway  and I got 43mpg  with the cruise set at 65

 

I figure the tesla guys since they were stopping every 200 miles or so to charge  would couple potty breaks and meal breaks when they were waiting for the charger.

 

either wasy  we'd be able to do it faster than the tesla  since  we would not have to stop but maybe 12 times..

 

But yes the ICE has it place still in the automotive world...



#28 OFFLINE   raadsel

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 08:11 PM

edmunds did a cross country thing in a tesla   23 stops for charging

 

Distance: 3,331.9 miles
    Total time: 67 hours, 21 minutes.
    Driving time: 52 hours, 41 minutes
    Average driving speed: 63.2 mph
    Total Supercharger plug-In time: 14 hours, 40 minutes
    Average Supercharger plug-in time: 38.3 minutes
    Number of Other Stops: 0
    Total energy consumption: 1.06 Megawatt-hours
    Total fuel cost: $0 (thanks to Tesla's free Superchargers, available to all Tesla owners)

 

figure with our cmax,  you'd get 500 miles per tank on highway milage so thats  6.6 stops for fuel (90 minutes).      figure by the time  you stop for food, potty add in another 6 more stops (2 hours)

 

I would really like to see this broken up differently. At least part of my problem, most people aren't going to drive without multiple overnight stops. In this example, if you are driving 11 hours a day, you would need roughly 4 overnight stops (666 miles per day @ 63 mph average speed). This eliminates 4 "charging stops" or, more likely 6, as you can get a full charge which gives you an extra 100 miles of range over the 30 minute charge. In this case, depending on how you like to travel, it may not add a lot of time; you'd just need at least two meal breaks of at least 30 minutes -- and an hour would help give you some extra miles before the next stop. Personally, I like at least 30 minutes for a meal just to be out of the car and not staring at the road.

 

Now, I'd likely try and do over 800 miles a day, to cut a day off. With a gas powered car, particularly a hybrid or diesel, this is much easier as you can spend more time driving. From my figures, with a Tesla you could start out the day going 300 miles, but then you'd need to charge (likely during lunch), but you'd still have 2 more times you'd have to charge the Tesla. 800 miles a day is about 13 hours of driving, at 63 mph; and adding an extra hour and a half of stops makes for an even longer day. The C-Max would only require one actual stop (though obviously you would take more), but it could cut an hour of extra time -- a 14 hour day instead of a 15 hour day.

 

Of course, I think the biggest point this demonstrates, when you start looking at it this way, is why people typically don't drive across the US, but fly instead. ;)

 

As for the number of charging stations, this will improve as we get more electric vehicles. What will be interesting will be to see how many gasoline stations there are in 25 years. There are currently 150,000 gas stations in the US but that number has fallen for 11 consecutive years. Additionally most gas stations are now also convenience stores, as they no longer make enough on gasoline sales alone. The number of gas stations should continue to decline, even without factoring EVs, as cars keep getting more efficient. 

 

The number of charging stations that will pop up is another question. The first problem is that you can "fill" your EV at home, eliminating some of the demand for charging stations. Additionally, the time element will change charging stations, as well. I suspect that many charging stations will eventually become part of various retail stores, such as malls or even big box stores; others will be part of "entertainment" venues and restaurants. People won't want to sit at the car while their car "fills", and it isn't required like it is with fuel pumps.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a national chains that already exist at many freeway exits, come out with a program to include charging stations -- and even to give a discount for people who eat at their restaurant while charging. I can easily see a company like McDonald's doing this, then there are other travel stops like Stuckey's, Cracker Barrel, etc. 

 

So it will be interesting to see how things will change; particularly the how the ratio of gas stations to charging stations changes over time.



#29 OFFLINE   SPL Tech

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 09:53 PM

It's worth adding that hybrids are NOT alternative fuel vehicles. They are ICE conventional cars. They burn gasoline for every part of their operation. A hybrid is like a motorcycle. It's just a more efficient ICE vehicle, but it's still 100% gasoline dependent. Electric is never going to work for large vehicles. Good luck towing a 80,000 lb trailer using electric only. Even electric light duty trucks are beyond the technology available right now. In order to even have an F-150 with a 8000 lb trailer, half of that weight would have to be batteries. Completely outside the scope of what is reasonable for anything other than a small car.



#30 OFFLINE   SnowStorm

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Posted 15 April 2015 - 11:32 PM

All this talk about charging - come now.  How many places have gasoline?  Supposedly about 120,000 in the US (and declining).  How many places have electricity?  Millions upon millions.  And nearly every mile of road.  Shouldn't be a problem getting enough charging locations.  (Japan already has more charging locations than petrol stations.)

 

An aside:  Have been reading Mark Twain's "Roughing It".  They're crossing a desert in the "Wells Fargo Wagon" when they come upon a building with water!  Water?  In the middle of the desert?  How did that get there?  Well, someone had to haul it there of course.  So when you run out, half way across the desert, you can "tank up".  (Sounds like how we get our gasoline! :lol2: )  "Roughing It"?  Crazy book!  If you get bored with the C-Max owners manual, give it a try.


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#31 OFFLINE   Adrian_L

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Posted 16 April 2015 - 11:58 AM

Good points.  I never said gas will be extinct in 2035, but rather plug-in hybrids will likely be the norm (or electrics with a backup generator a la the Volt).   Charging stations?   Probably everywhere--McDonalds, Walmart, your office parking lot etc.  

 

Unless you're buying a Rolls Royce, I very much doubt that you'll be able to buy a new car with a big V8 straight ICE engine. 



#32 OFFLINE   mlsstl

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Posted 16 April 2015 - 12:56 PM

Regarding the LP/CD analogy, just checked Nielsen figures and LPs are about 2% of all album sales including downloads & streaming equivalents. This is about 6% of the music sales on physical media. While LPs have a solid niche market, that is all it is -- a niche market. And LPs often come with a free download and surveys show the download is often played more than the LP consumers bought. 

 

Yes, CD sales did nearly, but not quite, wipe out the LP. Then, some years back the CD started getting it's rear kicked by digital downloads. These days, digital downloads are getting their rear kicked by streaming services, which is up in unit volume 42% from 2013 to 2104 and now almost half of the entire market.

 

The future is hard to predict.

 

As for electricity and cars, the current challenge will be getting the battery charged in the same time frame that you can currently fill a gas tank - about 5 minutes. There have been some interesting articles lately on the unforeseen factors that have interferred with new battery technology. I am sure they'll get there, but there's a very good chance that we currently have no idea what that will look like and how it will be accomplished.

 



#33 OFFLINE   Automate

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Posted 16 April 2015 - 01:38 PM

I agree that electricity is a lot easier to distribute than gasoline but the above statement is a little bit misleading comparing petrol stations to charging stations.  A charging station can only handle one car at a time and needs to be connected generally for hours at a time.  A single petrol station will have many petrol pumps (maybe 8 to 12 per station) and it takes less than 5 minutes to service a car.



#34 OFFLINE   Kelleytoons

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Posted 16 April 2015 - 03:09 PM

Actually, the only sure thing is that future forecasters are ALWAYS wrong.  Always.  Look it up.

 

What happens is that out of the blue things change in ways NO ONE could ever have predicted (which is why movies that take place "in the future" are always so funny watching them even 7 or 8 years later -- and movies 10 or 15 years ago showing "the future" are just plain silly).  There's even some kind of term or phenomena about this, but this old man can't recall what it is.

 

So, yes, ICE may or may not still be around when I'm not (not too long from now) but whatever has replaced it won't be ANYTHING you can have foreseen coming.  Trust me.  (Heck, it may even be horses.  Seriously).


Edited by Kelleytoons, 16 April 2015 - 03:09 PM.


#35 OFFLINE   RetAFEng

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Posted 15 April 2016 - 11:01 PM

When I stated driving 50 some years ago there was no talk about electric cars. The main reason then was that we didn't have extension cords long enough.  Presently they are working on several technologies for future vehicles, like hydrogen fuel cells.  I don't believe that I will be around long enough to see the end of the ICE, but I am looking forward to see the new technologies which try to kill it.  Presently we have the infrastructure to support the ICE, fuel stations all but everywhere.  Yes the number of fuel stations are diminishing as the vehicles we drive become more fuel efficient and the there are extremely few stations now with only one or two pumps as there were when I started driving.  I believe the number of fuel pumps have probably increased as the number of stations have reduced.  The next big push will have to be the infrastructure to support the new technologies. Atomic power cars?



#36 OFFLINE   SnowStorm

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Posted 16 April 2016 - 08:02 AM

Interesting comments about number of gas stations versus number of pumps.  Another way stations have changed is from "service stations" to "gas stations".  How often do you see a real service station now, let alone a "Mechanic On Duty" sign!  Cars now require so little maintenance compared to the "old days".  "Stations" today are more oriented to the needs of people rather than cars.

As to infrastructure for electric cars, we only need to note that electricity is far more available than gasoline - virtually every mile / kilometer of every road (or exits for limited access roads) have electricity every foot of the way.  All you need is a charging station which is much simpler than a gas station and no environmental issues.  Tesla already has super fast charges covering the entire US - that's one "little" company with only, maybe, 100,000 cars.  Batteries are already "good enough" (cost is dropping) - the issue is charging speed and a universal charging system.  Imagine having to find a Ford gas station or a GM gas station, or a Toyota gas station, etc!  We need a national or world standard for all charging stations but I doubt it will happen.

Atomic power could probably be done but everyone's afraid of it and it generates thermal pollution.  (Electric cars can run from solar power which just diverts the sun's energy through the car before it completely enters the environment - same amount of heat as if the car hadn't been there.)

The electric car is here now - what we still need is the following 3 items, first two short term, last one longer term:

  1. Lower costs - in process
  2. Fast and universal charging - not sure what will happen but its NOT a technical issue
  3. New electric roadway infrastructure that would provide high speed, safety, low energy consumption (automatic "platooning" and low friction wheels), convenience (autonomous - "driver" can sleep/read/whatever) and battery charging while you ride.  This last feature would eliminate most charging needs since short trips don't need charging and long trips would be made on the new system.  It wouldn't even need to be "fast" charging - better for the batteries.  The present infrastructure is aging and needs to be replaced with something far more energy efficient (if we really care about the environment!).  The cars would still operate on conventional roads - drive it right out of your garage, make local trips or hit the "electric thruway" to get there fast, charge your car and read, watch a movie or catch up on your sleep - all while using 20% of the energy we use today - and still in your own personal vehicle!

Edited by SnowStorm, 16 April 2016 - 08:11 AM.


#37 OFFLINE   stevedebi

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 11:06 AM

 

Interesting comments about number of gas stations versus number of pumps.  Another way stations have changed is from "service stations" to "gas stations".  How often do you see a real service station now, let alone a "Mechanic On Duty" sign!  Cars now require so little maintenance compared to the "old days".  "Stations" today are more oriented to the needs of people rather than cars.

As to infrastructure for electric cars, we only need to note that electricity is far more available than gasoline - virtually every mile / kilometer of every road (or exits for limited access roads) have electricity every foot of the way.  All you need is a charging station which is much simpler than a gas station and no environmental issues.  Tesla already has super fast charges covering the entire US - that's one "little" company with only, maybe, 100,000 cars.  Batteries are already "good enough" (cost is dropping) - the issue is charging speed and a universal charging system.  Imagine having to find a Ford gas station or a GM gas station, or a Toyota gas station, etc!  We need a national or world standard for all charging stations but I doubt it will happen.

Atomic power could probably be done but everyone's afraid of it and it generates thermal pollution.  (Electric cars can run from solar power which just diverts the sun's energy through the car before it completely enters the environment - same amount of heat as if the car hadn't been there.)

The electric car is here now - what we still need is the following 3 items, first two short term, last one longer term:

  1. Lower costs - in process
  2. Fast and universal charging - not sure what will happen but its NOT a technical issue
  3. New electric roadway infrastructure that would provide high speed, safety, low energy consumption (automatic "platooning" and low friction wheels), convenience (autonomous - "driver" can sleep/read/whatever) and battery charging while you ride.  This last feature would eliminate most charging needs since short trips don't need charging and long trips would be made on the new system.  It wouldn't even need to be "fast" charging - better for the batteries.  The present infrastructure is aging and needs to be replaced with something far more energy efficient (if we really care about the environment!).  The cars would still operate on conventional roads - drive it right out of your garage, make local trips or hit the "electric thruway" to get there fast, charge your car and read, watch a movie or catch up on your sleep - all while using 20% of the energy we use today - and still in your own personal vehicle!

 

Sorry,
 I disagree on item 2. Spending 20 or 30 minutes to charge every 250 miles is not good enough, not to mention the problem of batteries not being able to charge more than a set number of times. There are technical issues there. I can gas up in 5 - 10 minutes.



#38 OFFLINE   stevedebi

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 11:07 AM

When I stated driving 50 some years ago there was no talk about electric cars. The main reason then was that we didn't have extension cords long enough.  Presently they are working on several technologies for future vehicles, like hydrogen fuel cells.  I don't believe that I will be around long enough to see the end of the ICE, but I am looking forward to see the new technologies which try to kill it.  Presently we have the infrastructure to support the ICE, fuel stations all but everywhere.  Yes the number of fuel stations are diminishing as the vehicles we drive become more fuel efficient and the there are extremely few stations now with only one or two pumps as there were when I started driving.  I believe the number of fuel pumps have probably increased as the number of stations have reduced.  The next big push will have to be the infrastructure to support the new technologies. Atomic power cars?

I think hydrogen may be the answer. It can go into existing fuel stations, and the technology is there. Fuel cell tech is more that 50 years old.



#39 OFFLINE   Marc Smith

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 12:44 PM

well last week  I gave up my ICE.....on my 15 year old string trimmer and hand held blower.    and purchased  a Dewalt 4amp 40v  string trimmer and handheld blower...

 

Got tired of having the one gallon gas can with mix fuel,  just sitting....for at last a month between fill-ups....  so down to one 5 gallon gas can for the 20 year old mower.   Man I wish I could figure out a way to turn it into an electric with a usable range....



#40 OFFLINE   Kelleytoons

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 03:53 PM

Yeah, and just to be a contraian, we gave up on our all-electric pressure washer, which was pitiful compared to the gas-only powered one we have.

 

I assume in this particular analogy, it's a lot like those heavy duty trucks folks say need to be ICE -- pressure washers, in order to have any sort of power or reliability, need to be gas (all others are for amateurs -- I know, I was one and there is no comparison).

 

I still say the future is something we really can't see, although it's pretty funny that nearly all future "guesses" of over 30 years had cars being either electric, or flying, or something other than what they still are.  Who knows, perhaps the self-driving roadway will be what we ALL have, with our "stops" simply swapping out the ride for another, fully charged one.








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