Yes, I agree.
This bearing issue was first acknowledged with the SSM on C-Maxes in taxi service (very high mileage vehicles and rather unique operating characteristics), then there were the 4 DOE test vehicles (higher mileage per year vehicles), the CSP, and the TSB which now offers the kit. It could be that this issue is a systemic issue and the bearing is simply the point of failure not the underlying cause. Perhaps, the system design is flawed and can't be fixed given the current transmission configuration. So, all transmissions may ultimately suffer this "failure" given the quality of the bearing, how driven, and miles driven sooner than initial design criteria.
As our C-Maxes age and accumulate miles Ford likely expects more failures and now has a TSB that mitigates their financial exposure. Based on averages, 2013 MY would be approaching an average of about 70k miles with subsequent years about 14k miles less per year. Based on my hypothesis above, we should see an increasing number of failures which should lead to independent shops offering to perform the work which should lower costs. This is not rocket science and there are likely many Prius trannies (which are similar to ours) that have been replaced / perhaps taken apart by independent shops. Virtually all quality independent shops should have the subscriptions (like OASIS) and the diagnostic tools to do such work.
I've got 95k miles and likely less than 6 months before my GEICO MBI expires at 100 k miles. If mine fails after 100k miles, I'll go to an independent shop for quotes. IIRC, the TSB shows about 12 - 13 hours of labor. So, that's likely somewhere around $1000 - $1200 for labor. Add the kit or a used transmission and $2500 - $3000 seems a likely number. I'd probably do it for $500 -$1000 more if the used transmission were a 2016+ with low mileage.
Edited by Plus 3 Golfer, 25 October 2017 - 10:51 AM.