Hard cold winter or a mild one?

[Laurel]

I am feeling that we are going to have a cold snowy hard winter.  We had a long hot dry summer that went on forever, and now monsoon rains have hit early.  I just feel it in my bones that we will be shoveling this winter.  Any other psychics got an inkling?

[fotomoto]

Normally our winters way down here are temperate and dry but I get the feeling it's going to be colder and wetter.   We're all ready getting fronts strong enough to steer tropical storm systems away from us which is good but a sign of things to come me thinks.

[Adair]

I am feeling that we are going to have a cold snowy hard winter.  We had a long hot dry summer that went on forever, and now monsoon rains have hit early.  I just feel it in my bones that we will be shoveling this winter.  Any other psychics got an inkling?

 

 

Normally our winters way down here are temperate and dry but I get the feeling it's going to be colder and wetter.   We're all ready getting fronts strong enough to steer tropical storm systems away from us which is good but a sign of things to come me thinks.

Thanks you guys!!! Really made my morning! :cry:  :runaway:  :gaah:

[Laurel]

Sorry Adair!  However, I was listening to the radio this morning and somewhere got 22 inches of snow last night (I was half asleep and didn't here the location).  But a few states were hit with extreme weather and Nebraska had tornadoes I think.

[fbov]

The only problem with the question is that all answers are correct... somewhere!

 

I went looking, and one finds the two extremes pretty fast...

 

NOAA predictions

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=03

 

Farmers' Almanac predictions

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2013/08/25/2014-us-winter-forecast/

 

Not surprisingly, the NOAA forecast is sparse, and doesn't make any specific predictions, only general trends (Above, Normal, Below, and EC which I take to mean "can't tell.") the only trend is for above normal temps in the West/Southwest US until Spring, when everything changes.

 

Conversely, the almanac is happy to predict a Super Bowl snow storm for NYC (game's in the Meadowlands) along with a "shivery" winter.

 

The one good source I found is this blog, as he explains why it's hard to do long term forecasting even in light of ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) and the global climate patterns that correlate with Pacific sea surface temperature.

 

Personally, I hope he's wrong about "La Nada" (a year with no temperature anomaly) as that's when it gets really brutal here in Rochester...

 

Have fun,

Frank

[Laurel]

New snow tires going on this afternoon.  Should guarantee a snow free winter in the Pacific North West LOL. But we want to go up to Manning Park with the pooch this winter for some cross country skiing, and down to Cannon Beach on the Oregon coast too.  So likely will need them anyway.

[Tdefny]

I can't think about snow yet and won't even put the heat on in my house for another couple of weeks. I am not ready to forget summertime yet.

[RMS13]

Read the NOAA forecast and expect the opposite. They had the last two years wrong and their hurricane forecasts for the last several years are grossly incorrect. I think they need a new computer model, one that is not government/politically correct.