End Of The ICE-Age

[stevedebi]

We're still in the "Model T" phase of electric technology.   Obviously things are going to be far different in 20 years.   There's exciting stuff going on in Europe with heavy-duty vehicles and diesel/electric technology.   But if you think you're going to be driving an Escalade with a massive V8 in 2035---think again.

 

It simply doesn't make sense to spend loads of money on fossil fuel technology when newer technology provides massive savings.  Coca-cola are on the right track and other companies will jump on board as well. 

Well, an Escalade is a luxury car, and folks with money will buy what they want, assuming the fuel is available at all (which it will be).

 

Hybrid technology has been powering trains for a long time and makes sense for some heavier applications. But I'm not convinced that alternate fuels (not biofuels) would not be developed if indeed oil became scarce.

 

It is not about the technology, it is about the practicality of charging, and infrastructure. I think a lot of folks forget about the Western states, with their large distances between areas. What works in urban LA won't be so good in rural Utah.

[Marc Smith]

Steve

 

I just did a 2500 mile trip to florida.  90% highway  and I got 43mpg  with the cruise set at 65

 

I figure the tesla guys since they were stopping every 200 miles or so to charge  would couple potty breaks and meal breaks when they were waiting for the charger.

 

either wasy  we'd be able to do it faster than the tesla  since  we would not have to stop but maybe 12 times..

 

But yes the ICE has it place still in the automotive world...

[raadsel]

edmunds did a cross country thing in a tesla   23 stops for charging

 

Distance: 3,331.9 miles

    Total time: 67 hours, 21 minutes.

    Driving time: 52 hours, 41 minutes

    Average driving speed: 63.2 mph

    Total Supercharger plug-In time: 14 hours, 40 minutes

    Average Supercharger plug-in time: 38.3 minutes

    Number of Other Stops: 0

    Total energy consumption: 1.06 Megawatt-hours

    Total fuel cost: $0 (thanks to Tesla's free Superchargers, available to all Tesla owners)

 

figure with our cmax,  you'd get 500 miles per tank on highway milage so thats  6.6 stops for fuel (90 minutes).      figure by the time  you stop for food, potty add in another 6 more stops (2 hours)

 

I would really like to see this broken up differently. At least part of my problem, most people aren't going to drive without multiple overnight stops. In this example, if you are driving 11 hours a day, you would need roughly 4 overnight stops (666 miles per day @ 63 mph average speed). This eliminates 4 "charging stops" or, more likely 6, as you can get a full charge which gives you an extra 100 miles of range over the 30 minute charge. In this case, depending on how you like to travel, it may not add a lot of time; you'd just need at least two meal breaks of at least 30 minutes -- and an hour would help give you some extra miles before the next stop. Personally, I like at least 30 minutes for a meal just to be out of the car and not staring at the road.

 

Now, I'd likely try and do over 800 miles a day, to cut a day off. With a gas powered car, particularly a hybrid or diesel, this is much easier as you can spend more time driving. From my figures, with a Tesla you could start out the day going 300 miles, but then you'd need to charge (likely during lunch), but you'd still have 2 more times you'd have to charge the Tesla. 800 miles a day is about 13 hours of driving, at 63 mph; and adding an extra hour and a half of stops makes for an even longer day. The C-Max would only require one actual stop (though obviously you would take more), but it could cut an hour of extra time -- a 14 hour day instead of a 15 hour day.

 

Of course, I think the biggest point this demonstrates, when you start looking at it this way, is why people typically don't drive across the US, but fly instead. ;)

 

As for the number of charging stations, this will improve as we get more electric vehicles. What will be interesting will be to see how many gasoline stations there are in 25 years. There are currently 150,000 gas stations in the US but that number has fallen for 11 consecutive years. Additionally most gas stations are now also convenience stores, as they no longer make enough on gasoline sales alone. The number of gas stations should continue to decline, even without factoring EVs, as cars keep getting more efficient. 

 

The number of charging stations that will pop up is another question. The first problem is that you can "fill" your EV at home, eliminating some of the demand for charging stations. Additionally, the time element will change charging stations, as well. I suspect that many charging stations will eventually become part of various retail stores, such as malls or even big box stores; others will be part of "entertainment" venues and restaurants. People won't want to sit at the car while their car "fills", and it isn't required like it is with fuel pumps.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a national chains that already exist at many freeway exits, come out with a program to include charging stations -- and even to give a discount for people who eat at their restaurant while charging. I can easily see a company like McDonald's doing this, then there are other travel stops like Stuckey's, Cracker Barrel, etc. 

 

So it will be interesting to see how things will change; particularly the how the ratio of gas stations to charging stations changes over time.

[SPL Tech]

It's worth adding that hybrids are NOT alternative fuel vehicles. They are ICE conventional cars. They burn gasoline for every part of their operation. A hybrid is like a motorcycle. It's just a more efficient ICE vehicle, but it's still 100% gasoline dependent. Electric is never going to work for large vehicles. Good luck towing a 80,000 lb trailer using electric only. Even electric light duty trucks are beyond the technology available right now. In order to even have an F-150 with a 8000 lb trailer, half of that weight would have to be batteries. Completely outside the scope of what is reasonable for anything other than a small car.

[SnowStorm]

All this talk about charging - come now.  How many places have gasoline?  Supposedly about 120,000 in the US (and declining).  How many places have electricity?  Millions upon millions.  And nearly every mile of road.  Shouldn't be a problem getting enough charging locations.  (Japan already has more charging locations than petrol stations.)

 

An aside:  Have been reading Mark Twain's "Roughing It".  They're crossing a desert in the "Wells Fargo Wagon" when they come upon a building with water!  Water?  In the middle of the desert?  How did that get there?  Well, someone had to haul it there of course.  So when you run out, half way across the desert, you can "tank up".  (Sounds like how we get our gasoline! :lol2: )  "Roughing It"?  Crazy book!  If you get bored with the C-Max owners manual, give it a try.

[Adrian_L]

Good points.  I never said gas will be extinct in 2035, but rather plug-in hybrids will likely be the norm (or electrics with a backup generator a la the Volt).   Charging stations?   Probably everywhere--McDonalds, Walmart, your office parking lot etc.  

 

Unless you're buying a Rolls Royce, I very much doubt that you'll be able to buy a new car with a big V8 straight ICE engine. 

[mlsstl]

Regarding the LP/CD analogy, just checked Nielsen figures and LPs are about 2% of all album sales including downloads & streaming equivalents. This is about 6% of the music sales on physical media. While LPs have a solid niche market, that is all it is -- a niche market. And LPs often come with a free download and surveys show the download is often played more than the LP consumers bought. 

 

Yes, CD sales did nearly, but not quite, wipe out the LP. Then, some years back the CD started getting it's rear kicked by digital downloads. These days, digital downloads are getting their rear kicked by streaming services, which is up in unit volume 42% from 2013 to 2104 and now almost half of the entire market.

 

The future is hard to predict.

 

As for electricity and cars, the current challenge will be getting the battery charged in the same time frame that you can currently fill a gas tank - about 5 minutes. There have been some interesting articles lately on the unforeseen factors that have interferred with new battery technology. I am sure they'll get there, but there's a very good chance that we currently have no idea what that will look like and how it will be accomplished.

 

[Automate]

Japan already has more charging locations than petrol stations.

 

 

I agree that electricity is a lot easier to distribute than gasoline but the above statement is a little bit misleading comparing petrol stations to charging stations.  A charging station can only handle one car at a time and needs to be connected generally for hours at a time.  A single petrol station will have many petrol pumps (maybe 8 to 12 per station) and it takes less than 5 minutes to service a car.

[Kelleytoons]

Actually, the only sure thing is that future forecasters are ALWAYS wrong.  Always.  Look it up.

 

What happens is that out of the blue things change in ways NO ONE could ever have predicted (which is why movies that take place "in the future" are always so funny watching them even 7 or 8 years later -- and movies 10 or 15 years ago showing "the future" are just plain silly).  There's even some kind of term or phenomena about this, but this old man can't recall what it is.

 

So, yes, ICE may or may not still be around when I'm not (not too long from now) but whatever has replaced it won't be ANYTHING you can have foreseen coming.  Trust me.  (Heck, it may even be horses.  Seriously).

Edited April 16, 2015 by Kelleytoons

[RetAFEng]

When I stated driving 50 some years ago there was no talk about electric cars. The main reason then was that we didn't have extension cords long enough.  Presently they are working on several technologies for future vehicles, like hydrogen fuel cells.  I don't believe that I will be around long enough to see the end of the ICE, but I am looking forward to see the new technologies which try to kill it.  Presently we have the infrastructure to support the ICE, fuel stations all but everywhere.  Yes the number of fuel stations are diminishing as the vehicles we drive become more fuel efficient and the there are extremely few stations now with only one or two pumps as there were when I started driving.  I believe the number of fuel pumps have probably increased as the number of stations have reduced.  The next big push will have to be the infrastructure to support the new technologies. Atomic power cars?

[SnowStorm]

Interesting comments about number of gas stations versus number of pumps.  Another way stations have changed is from "service stations" to "gas stations".  How often do you see a real service station now, let alone a "Mechanic On Duty" sign!  Cars now require so little maintenance compared to the "old days".  "Stations" today are more oriented to the needs of people rather than cars.

As to infrastructure for electric cars, we only need to note that electricity is far more available than gasoline - virtually every mile / kilometer of every road (or exits for limited access roads) have electricity every foot of the way.  All you need is a charging station which is much simpler than a gas station and no environmental issues.  Tesla already has super fast charges covering the entire US - that's one "little" company with only, maybe, 100,000 cars.  Batteries are already "good enough" (cost is dropping) - the issue is charging speed and a universal charging system.  Imagine having to find a Ford gas station or a GM gas station, or a Toyota gas station, etc!  We need a national or world standard for all charging stations but I doubt it will happen.

Atomic power could probably be done but everyone's afraid of it and it generates thermal pollution.  (Electric cars can run from solar power which just diverts the sun's energy through the car before it completely enters the environment - same amount of heat as if the car hadn't been there.)

The electric car is here now - what we still need is the following 3 items, first two short term, last one longer term:

1. Lower costs - in process
2. Fast and universal charging - not sure what will happen but its NOT a technical issue
3. New electric roadway infrastructure that would provide high speed, safety, low energy consumption (automatic "platooning" and low friction wheels), convenience (autonomous - "driver" can sleep/read/whatever) and battery charging while you ride.  This last feature would eliminate most charging needs since short trips don't need charging and long trips would be made on the new system.  It wouldn't even need to be "fast" charging - better for the batteries.  The present infrastructure is aging and needs to be replaced with something far more energy efficient (if we really care about the environment!).  The cars would still operate on conventional roads - drive it right out of your garage, make local trips or hit the "electric thruway" to get there fast, charge your car and read, watch a movie or catch up on your sleep - all while using 20% of the energy we use today - and still in your own personal vehicle!

Edited April 16, 2016 by SnowStorm

[stevedebi]

 

Interesting comments about number of gas stations versus number of pumps.  Another way stations have changed is from "service stations" to "gas stations".  How often do you see a real service station now, let alone a "Mechanic On Duty" sign!  Cars now require so little maintenance compared to the "old days".  "Stations" today are more oriented to the needs of people rather than cars.

As to infrastructure for electric cars, we only need to note that electricity is far more available than gasoline - virtually every mile / kilometer of every road (or exits for limited access roads) have electricity every foot of the way.  All you need is a charging station which is much simpler than a gas station and no environmental issues.  Tesla already has super fast charges covering the entire US - that's one "little" company with only, maybe, 100,000 cars.  Batteries are already "good enough" (cost is dropping) - the issue is charging speed and a universal charging system.  Imagine having to find a Ford gas station or a GM gas station, or a Toyota gas station, etc!  We need a national or world standard for all charging stations but I doubt it will happen.

Atomic power could probably be done but everyone's afraid of it and it generates thermal pollution.  (Electric cars can run from solar power which just diverts the sun's energy through the car before it completely enters the environment - same amount of heat as if the car hadn't been there.)

The electric car is here now - what we still need is the following 3 items, first two short term, last one longer term:

1. Lower costs - in process
2. Fast and universal charging - not sure what will happen but its NOT a technical issue
3. New electric roadway infrastructure that would provide high speed, safety, low energy consumption (automatic "platooning" and low friction wheels), convenience (autonomous - "driver" can sleep/read/whatever) and battery charging while you ride.  This last feature would eliminate most charging needs since short trips don't need charging and long trips would be made on the new system.  It wouldn't even need to be "fast" charging - better for the batteries.  The present infrastructure is aging and needs to be replaced with something far more energy efficient (if we really care about the environment!).  The cars would still operate on conventional roads - drive it right out of your garage, make local trips or hit the "electric thruway" to get there fast, charge your car and read, watch a movie or catch up on your sleep - all while using 20% of the energy we use today - and still in your own personal vehicle!

 

Sorry,

 I disagree on item 2. Spending 20 or 30 minutes to charge every 250 miles is not good enough, not to mention the problem of batteries not being able to charge more than a set number of times. There are technical issues there. I can gas up in 5 - 10 minutes.

[stevedebi]

When I stated driving 50 some years ago there was no talk about electric cars. The main reason then was that we didn't have extension cords long enough.  Presently they are working on several technologies for future vehicles, like hydrogen fuel cells.  I don't believe that I will be around long enough to see the end of the ICE, but I am looking forward to see the new technologies which try to kill it.  Presently we have the infrastructure to support the ICE, fuel stations all but everywhere.  Yes the number of fuel stations are diminishing as the vehicles we drive become more fuel efficient and the there are extremely few stations now with only one or two pumps as there were when I started driving.  I believe the number of fuel pumps have probably increased as the number of stations have reduced.  The next big push will have to be the infrastructure to support the new technologies. Atomic power cars?

I think hydrogen may be the answer. It can go into existing fuel stations, and the technology is there. Fuel cell tech is more that 50 years old.

[Marc Smith]

well last week  I gave up my ICE.....on my 15 year old string trimmer and hand held blower.    and purchased  a Dewalt 4amp 40v  string trimmer and handheld blower...

 

Got tired of having the one gallon gas can with mix fuel,  just sitting....for at last a month between fill-ups....  so down to one 5 gallon gas can for the 20 year old mower.   Man I wish I could figure out a way to turn it into an electric with a usable range....

[Kelleytoons]

Yeah, and just to be a contraian, we gave up on our all-electric pressure washer, which was pitiful compared to the gas-only powered one we have.

 

I assume in this particular analogy, it's a lot like those heavy duty trucks folks say need to be ICE -- pressure washers, in order to have any sort of power or reliability, need to be gas (all others are for amateurs -- I know, I was one and there is no comparison).

 

I still say the future is something we really can't see, although it's pretty funny that nearly all future "guesses" of over 30 years had cars being either electric, or flying, or something other than what they still are.  Who knows, perhaps the self-driving roadway will be what we ALL have, with our "stops" simply swapping out the ride for another, fully charged one.

[ptjones]

well last week  I gave up my ICE.....on my 15 year old string trimmer and hand held blower.    and purchased  a Dewalt 4amp 40v  string trimmer and handheld blower...

 

Got tired of having the one gallon gas can with mix fuel,  just sitting....for at last a month between fill-ups....  so down to one 5 gallon gas can for the 20 year old mower.   Man I wish I could figure out a way to turn it into an electric with a usable range....

They have the electric powered lawn mowers at Lowe's. LOL :)

 

Paul

[plus 3 golfer]

Yeah, and just to be a contraian, we gave up on our all-electric pressure washer, which was pitiful compared to the gas-only powered one we have.

 

I assume in this particular analogy, it's a lot like those heavy duty trucks folks say need to be ICE -- pressure washers, in order to have any sort of power or reliability, need to be gas (all others are for amateurs -- I know, I was one and there is no comparison).

 

I still say the future is something we really can't see, although it's pretty funny that nearly all future "guesses" of over 30 years had cars being either electric, or flying, or something other than what they still are.  Who knows, perhaps the self-driving roadway will be what we ALL have, with our "stops" simply swapping out the ride for another, fully charged one.

 

Problem with electric ones is that the residential ones are designed to use 120 VAC, 15 A circuits.  To get higher pressures and flow like the gas ones, the HP rating would likely need to be at least 4 HP (which is likely more expensive than a gas 4 HP engine) and would require a circuit to handle 3000 Watts (240 VAC circuit).

 

For example, my pressure washer is rated at 2600 psi @ 2.2 gallons / minute with the 15* tip in.  That equates to a motor with a 4.0 HP output to drive the pump. 

[Marc Smith]

Full disclosure....I am the landscape manager at a university in Washington, D.C... My crews were given the opportunity to demo dewalts full line of the 40v landscape tools. For the entire year last year. I went out and used the tools and was able to get a bit more than an hours run time out of the sting trimmer with very comparable performance to a gas powered unit. Some thing with the hedge trimmer and hand held blower.

 

So this spring I went out and purchased the trimmer and blower at retail price for my own use at home. One of my crews likes the tools so much that they won't use the gas powered equipment anymore....

 

Pressure washers are still a lame duck from an electric point of view. Home owner use. Unlikely to get over 2000psi and under 2 gpm. Where as even a nice gas powered unit from Home Depot. Will come close to doubling that....

 

We also demoed stihls battery line up. Was not impressed. From a commercial point of view...

 

I'm getting the chance to get a closer look at the mean green line up of mower this week.

http://www.meangreenproducts.com/

 

15k for a lawn mower is a bit steep... But...from a green point of view. I could probably swing it at work. Considering a comparable gas powered unit is about 12k

 

2k for a 21" push mower is also a bit steep. But going green is not cheap from an initial investment point of view...

 

I've got an acre at home. And. No way anything I buy at lowes or hd. Will do me any good. I'm not walking, although I should to lose the spare tires around my waist..

[SnowStorm]

.... Who knows, perhaps the self-driving roadway will be what we ALL have, with our "stops" simply swapping out the ride for another, fully charged one.

The intent was that the "self-driving roadway" would use personal electric vehicles you drive right out of your garage - and it would power and charge them as they drive.  I think Americans aren't that in tune with "public" transportation - we want a private car (I do) that we always use, not some public car that who-knows-who has been in lugging around who-knows-what!  Long distance trips could be non-stop - the car could be like a mini motor-home - 24 hours and you've crossed the continent using less than 100 Watt-Hours / mile - and when you exit, it would be fully charged.  We could do it!  Good grief - we went to the moon when I was a kid, many moons ago!

[SnowStorm]

Time moves on.... the ICE keeps melting.  The VW camper van returns - fully electric!  [They just better include 120/240VAC outputs to eliminate those noisy campground generators!]

 

"It’s just one of 30 (yes, thirty) fully electric models that Volkswagen wants to have on sale by 2025. If anyone’s preparing for forthcoming bans on petrol and diesel, it appears to be VW…"

 

Bans???  Where Diesel has gone, can Otto be far behind?

[C-MaxSea]

"Just make it already.”  That is what we have been saying for years - especially a camper (have loved all the concept videos over the years).

 

Can't stand ICE vehicles anymore, especially diesel.  And to imagine that I once pondered a conversion to diesel for our VW MV - Eeeeek !

[SnowStorm]

We now have a date!  The ICE age ends in just 33 years!  80% gone in just 13 years!

[SnowStorm]

Its warm down south - 2 more ICEbergs melt!

 

$1 billion for Mercedes to build electric SUVs and batteries in Alabama.

    "four different vehicles in its EQ series of dedicated battery-electric vehicles by 2022"

    "accelerated plans to offer even more by 2025 as a number of factors have combined to make electric vehicles increasingly urgent"

News from VW is that:

    "the company expects to bring electric SUV production to the United States and could add production at its Tennessee plant."

 

Other news:

    "Daimler is investing 10 billion Euros (about $10.8 billion) to make it [electric cars] happen."

    "Mercedes-Benz’s ... announced plans to launch a battery-powered heavy-duty truck ... 124 miles of range"

    "Porsche has promised it will turn the Mission E concept into a production model by 2019."

    Audi has "promised to release three electric cars by 2020, including a large SUV and a big sedan."

    "Jaguar is turning the i-Pace concept into a production car aimed squarely at the Model X."

 

And here:

    Volvo "said in July all of its models launched after 2019 would be electric or hybrids."

Edited September 22, 2017 by SnowStorm

[raadsel]

As I understand it, Volkswagen building EVs at their Tennessee plant is part of the settlement with the EPA for the Diesel scandal.

[HotPotato]

"Just make it already.”  That is what we have been saying for years - especially a camper (have loved all the concept videos over the years).

 

Can't stand ICE vehicles anymore, especially diesel.  And to imagine that I once pondered a conversion to diesel for our VW MV - Eeeeek !

Yep. Every year, VW trots out another "Microbus reborn as an electric vehicle" for the car shows, promises to build it, and then flakes out. Another year, another 2-tone electric van with lots of seats and windows, another broken promise to build it. Like clockwork. Supposedly this time with the ID Buzz it's different. I'll believe it when I see it at the dealer with a Monroney sticker in the window.

 

I've come pretty close to trading the C-Max for a Chevy Bolt EV. But the driver's seat is a deal killer, like sitting in a narrow but attractively upholstered lawn chair, complete with having to slide over a hard metal frame under the edge every time you enter or exit the car. If I could put C-Max seats in the Bolt, they'd have a sale. Actually, one guy did in fact put the seats from his rear-ended VW Jetta into his Bolt EV. Swapped the Bolt's airbag modules into the seats in place of the VW ones, and off to the races. Others have figured out how much additional foam to put in the Chevy seat, what kind, how and where -- and honestly I could do that the same afternoon I bought the car, it's not a complicated job. I'd still have to figure something out for the permanently forward tilting headrest constantly knocking at my skull, though -- by far my least favorite thing about modern cars. It's lovely that the C-Max lets you ratchet the headrest back...one of my favorite things about the car, even though it's a small thing.