End Of The ICE-Age

[SnowStorm]

Yes, some of those "small things" are really some of the biggest.  Everything that touches us, or that we touch, in a car is a prime candidate for being a "big thing".  To me, seats are such a "big thing" that I just don't understand why car makers can't spend a few more dollars to put in really nice ones.  Good grief, can it cost more than one or two hundred extra in their cost to upgrade seats to "first class"?  I doubt it.  Would it kill a sale to add that one or two hundred bucks to the price?  No way, not after you sit in a fabulous seat.  Before buying the C-Max I sat in an SUV (Mazda I think) and my back started aching in about a minute, just sitting there!  Didn't bother with a test drive!  Shucks, we should go back to the "50s" with flat seats and coil springs.  IIRC (might be questionable!) they were generally more comfortable. But then "bucket seats" became the rage and now we all sit, all bolstered up, with our butts in a bucket - and it's about that comfortable!  Who sleeps all night on a mattress built like a car seat - flat webbing with some foam and lots of bolsters?  Mattresses are made to adjust to any body shape and, just have a look around, there are lots of shapes.  Maybe we need a federal standard for seat comfort.  Now wouldn't that be a challenge to write!  On second thought, maybe we don't!

[SnowStorm]

Melting ICE can get a bit messy but it keeps melting anyway!

From this report:

1. Passenger EV sales were below expectations for a number of years causing an oversupply of batteries, but:
2. A large demand growth is forecast and "battery manufacturers have announced further capacity build despite oversupply."
3. Electric buses used far more batteries than other passenger vehicles in 2016.
4. Battery pack prices are forecast to fall to as little as $73 / kWh by 2030.  They were $1000 in 2010.
5. Batteries will be only 18% of car cost by 2030.
6. It looks like EVs will be cheaper than ICE cars by 2025 (slide 8).
7. Batteries from used EVs become stationary storage.  "Daimler, GM, BMW and Nissan are actively engaged in second-life repurposing."

[SnowStorm]

Money melts more ICE as VW commits $25 billion to EV batteries!  More news about the end of the ICE Age:

1. VW Chief Executive Matthias Mueller says "We have pulled out all the stops over the past months to implement the Roadmap E swiftly and resolutely,”
2. VW to have 16 plants globally by 2022 building ICE free ("zero emission") cars (3 plants at present).
3. A goal of the VW group is to sell 3 million electric cars per year by 2025.
4. All 300 models in the VW group to have an electric version by 2030.
5. For 3 years a 260 foot ferry in Norway has run all day, 7 days/week on electricity!
6. France intends to end all ICE car sales by 2040.

[raadsel]

 

Money melts more ICE as VW commits $25 billion to EV batteries!  More news about the end of the ICE Age:

1. VW Chief Executive Matthias Mueller says "We have pulled out all the stops over the past months to implement the Roadmap E swiftly and resolutely,”
2. VW to have 16 plants globally by 2022 building ICE free ("zero emission") cars (3 plants at present).
3. A goal of the VW group is to sell 3 million electric cars per year by 2025.
4. All 300 models in the VW group to have an electric version by 2030.
5. For 3 years a 260 foot ferry in Norway has run all day, 7 days/week on electricity!
6. France intends to end all ICE car sales by 2040.

 

 

To be "fair," VW's sudden interest in Electric cars is largely based on their settlement with the US government over Diesel-gate -- VW is to build EVs in the US and to invest $2 billion dollars in Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) infrastructure, such as building charging stations: 

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-11/documents/vw-faqs-app-c-final-11-18-16.pdf

Edited March 14, 2018 by raadsel

[HotPotato]

The real problem with EV is the charging time of a half an hour or more is inconvenient when compared to 10min. gas fill up. Going Cross Country would be a pain. ;)

 

Paul

 

Most people use their cars to commute. Plug it in when you get home, and you have a full tank every morning without ever going to a nasty gas station. That's a time saving, not a time suck.

 

But sure, sometimes you take a road trip. So have a different car for road trips. Or buy a PHEV, with gas still on board. Or buy a Tesla, which has a giant battery and can charge twice as fast as others; unless you have a trucker-level bladder you're gonna have to stop to pee and eat periodically anyway.

 

It's true that there aren't as many charging stations as gas stations, and charging times for all but Teslas are a bit pokey. But that will change.

[ptjones]

Most people use their cars to commute. Plug it in when you get home, and you have a full tank every morning without ever going to a nasty gas station. That's a time saving, not a time suck.

 

But sure, sometimes you take a road trip. So have a different car for road trips. Or buy a PHEV, with gas still on board. Or buy a Tesla, which has a giant battery and can charge twice as fast as others; unless you have a trucker-level bladder you're gonna have to stop to pee and eat periodically anyway.

 

It's true that there aren't as many charging stations as gas stations, and charging times for all but Teslas are a bit pokey. But that will change.

For now a PHEV/Hybrid are more practical if you only have one vehicle and affordable, I'm getting my moneys worth out of MADMAX with 189k miles. :yahoo:  

 

Paul 

[SnowStorm]

Another option for longer trips, especially if infrequent, is to simply rent that second car.  It could be a lot cheaper and you can pick the type of vehicle best suited to a particular trip.

 

As to charging, we really need standardized high rate charging!!!  Imagine if you could only get gasoline for your Ford at a Ford gasoline station!  Insane.

 

Now for "the end of the ice age", SnowStorm might have to eat his prediction.  Its snowing away like mad in VA right now!  Oops, wrong ICE!

[markd]

Electricity is really expensive here in Indiana. I've calculated that gas would have to be more than six dollars a gallon before electricity would be cheaper.

[SnowStorm]

Electricity is really expensive here in Indiana. I've calculated that gas would have to be more than six dollars a gallon before electricity would be cheaper.

That seems surprising.  Fueleconomy.gov uses 12 cents per kW-Hr for average electric rate and 0.25 to 0.35 kW-Hr per mile for EV consumption (excepting the Tesla X).  Using 0.30 kW-Hr per mile gives 3.6 cents per mile.  At the 40 mpg EPA C-Max rating, electricity would cost $1.44 which is way below anyones gasoline price per gallon.  Fuel for an average EV costs 54% of a C-Max.  Plus an EV eliminates all the time and cost of ICE maintenance.

[SnowStorm]

kostby's latest post links this article where Bill Ford says:

"...Ford is committed to ensuring our trucks continue to power the world in a sustainable way – whether they are powered by EcoBoost engines, hybrid powertrains, or are fully electric,”

 

I take that statement to mean "fully electric" trucks are on the way!  I've had some fun suggesting the idea of electric motorcycles to bikers; I plan to have even more fun touting hybrid and fully electric pickups to the much larger truck owner crowd!

 

Also, that plant's aluminum recycling and other environmental solutions are quite amazing and wildly commendable.

[ptjones]

That seems surprising.  Fueleconomy.gov uses 12 cents per kW-Hr for average electric rate and 0.25 to 0.35 kW-Hr per mile for EV consumption (excepting the Tesla X).  Using 0.30 kW-Hr per mile gives 3.6 cents per mile.  At the 40 mpg EPA C-Max rating, electricity would cost $1.44 which is way below anyones gasoline price per gallon.  Fuel for an average EV costs 54% of a C-Max.  Plus an EV eliminates all the time and cost of ICE maintenance.

Wait a minute, are you telling me that My CMAX getting 60 mpg and 30k miles on oil changes that I'm getting close to EV costs? :)

 

Paul

[SnowStorm]

Wait a minute, are you telling me that My CMAX getting 60 mpg and 30k miles on oil changes that I'm getting close to EV costs? :)

 

Paul

Not really.  If you drove an EV in the same manner as your C-Max, your EV cost would likely be under 3 cents/mile.  That compares to about 5.8 cents per mile for your C-Max using $3.454 current US average cost of premium fuel and 60 mpg.  Oil doesn't add much per mile (one or two tenths of a cent) but I still find changing it a nuisance.  So, the EV still comes in at about half the cost.

[stolenmoment]

Right; I get 4+mi/kWh in my Energi, my household electricity is about $.12/kWh, so that math certainly works for me.  Even the pricey charger near work charges $.20/kWh, raising it to $.05/mi.  Thankfully, there's a free charger (thanks, National Grid!) only slightly farther away, which drops my cost about in half.

[ptjones]

Not really.  If you drove an EV in the same manner as your C-Max, your EV cost would likely be under 3 cents/mile.  That compares to about 5.8 cents per mile for your C-Max using $3.454 current US average cost of premium fuel and 60 mpg.  Oil doesn't add much per mile (one or two tenths of a cent) but I still find changing it a nuisance.  So, the EV still comes in at about half the cost.

I have been averaging $3/gal. for Premium the last 10 fillups and cheaper before that. :) If cost was everything I could use Regular with some loss in MPG's, but should get it down to 4.8 cents/mi. I think. :headscratch:

 

Paul

[SnowStorm]

OK, I missed this announcement 2 months ago -

 

“In the year 2026 will be the last product start on a combustion engine platform,” Michael Jost told the Handelsblatt automotive summit conference at Volkswagen’s headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany.

 

So, perhaps they build that product for 10 years and ... the ICE Age ends!  Only 17 years away!

[markd]

Back in 1974 my Dad was working with GE on batteries that could be used on lawn tractors and forklifts. If he was still alive he would marvel at how far technology has come.

[SnowStorm]

Back in 1974 my Dad was working with GE on batteries that could be used on lawn tractors and forklifts. If he was still alive he would marvel at how far technology has come.

I'm sure he would!  Now just think how far battery technology would be today if it hadn't been nearly frozen for 100 years by the ICE Age!

[SnowStorm]

Some folks arrive before their time.  This article quotes Henry Ford saying:

 

"I believe that ultimately the electric motor will be universally used for trucking in all large cities, and that the electric automobile will be the family carriage of the future. All trucking must come to electricity. I am convinced that it will not be long before all the trucking in New York City will be electric."   [emphasis added]

 

Funny how it was said by one who, to great extent, helped bring on the ICE age!

[plus 3 golfer]

Some folks arrive before their time. This article quotes Henry Ford saying:

 

"I believe that ultimately the electric motor will be universally used for trucking in all large cities, and that the electric automobile will be the family carriage of the future. All trucking must come to electricity. I am convinced that it will not be long before all the trucking in New York City will be electric." [emphasis added]

 

Funny how it was said by one who, to great extent, helped bring on the ICE age!

and how after over 100 years this statement still points to the fundamental problem of electricity storage - energy density. "The problem so far has been to build a storage battery of light weight which would operate for long distances without recharging." Take a look at the energy density of gasoline vs a lithium ion battery in the attached table.

 

IMO, how to move from the ICE age to the EV age will be solved by those that "carry a big stick" not a technological kWh storage break through. unless we can "harness" nuclear energy and put a small reactor / battery / generation in each vehicle. Nuclear has been talked about since the 1950s. Ever hear of the Ford Nucleon.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2019 by Plus 3 Golfer

[SnowStorm]

The Ford Nucleon - not sure I ever heard of it - I was just a little kid then.  That front overhang might be more of a problem than anything else!

 

Interesting chart:

• Compared to batteries, heat producing fuels will waste about 75% of the indicated energy but they're still about 25 times better than Li-Ion.
• Interesting how low gunpowder is compared to fossil fuels - but it carries its own oxidizer.
• Hey, sugar isn't so bad!  At commodity prices it would cost about 50% more per mile but wouldn't that be "one sweet ride"? :lol:
• How about ammonia?  A bit heavier but leaves you with "one clean machine"! :)

If you think nuclear is dense, check out antimatter at 90 billion MJ/kg.  Better throw your trash in the trunk when you leave or you might arrive without a car! :lol2:

(Hey, with a bum transmission, SnowStorm is looking for humor - even if he has to create low quality stuff himself!)

[plus 3 golfer]

I didn’t remember the Nucleon name or that Ford was the one talking about a nuclear fueled car until I looked it up. My neighbor back in the 70’s was a nuclear engineer and we would BS a lot about nuclear power and it’s potential uses. We were playing cards in the evening of the day TMI had a partial meltdown. He was with Westinghouse nuclear working on a new plant in TX. He saw the hand writing on the wall after TMI and left Westinghouse to work for the owners of the TX plant.

 

The Nucleon

 

https://macsmotorcitygarage.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1958-Ford-Nucleon-360.jpg

[ptjones]

The Ford Nucleon - not sure I ever heard of it - I was just a little kid then.  That front overhang might be more of a problem than anything else!

 

Interesting chart:

• Compared to batteries, heat producing fuels will waste about 75% of the indicated energy but they're still about 25 times better than Li-Ion.
• Interesting how low gunpowder is compared to fossil fuels - but it carries its own oxidizer.
• Hey, sugar isn't so bad!  At commodity prices it would cost about 50% more per mile but wouldn't that be "one sweet ride"? :lol:
• How about ammonia?  A bit heavier but leaves you with "one clean machine"! :)

If you think nuclear is dense, check out antimatter at 90 billion MJ/kg.  Better throw your trash in the trunk when you leave or you might arrive without a car! :lol2:

(Hey, with a bum transmission, SnowStorm is looking for humor - even if he has to create low quality stuff himself!)

I still think it is possible to improve ICE efficiency from 30% to 60% to be used in Hybrids which could double MPG/range.  :)  I also think it would be unwise to go to all EV in the future from a Security stand point. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.  One strong solar flare or EMP could put the whole electrical grid out of commission. :headscratch:

 

Paul

[SnowStorm]

21 years and melting!

 

The government has announced its intention to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2040 while also committing to buy EVs for a quarter of its own fleet by 2022.

 

Just 21 years to argue the pros and cons of ICE versus EV - then it wont matter!

The ICE Age will have lasted about 150 years - about the same as the steam locomotive.

[ptjones]

That was a UK article and yr. 2050 for no carbon emissions and It might be more practical for them.  I can't see ICE ever being phased out, there will always be bio fuels and what is the Military going to use, EV tanks and ships I don't think so. Hopefully they keep making ICE more efficient which will make Hybrids more efficient.  It would be nice to go 1k miles on 13 gal of gas.  :)  BTW  NASA said in Feb. that the Earths average temp has been going down for the last four years. :headscratch:  I think it lasted about two days, then they came back with the last four years have been the hottest on record. I find it interesting what you can do with the same numbers. :headscratch:  Looks to me like someone has an agenda and they make sure it is followed no matter what the facts are.

 

Paul

[fbov]

... NASA said in Feb. that the Earths average temp has been going down for the last four years....

Got a reference?

 

Or are you just repeating something someone said....

 

Frank