Probability of Transmission Failure?

[meh]

HI everyone,  Just to preface this, I'm currently looking at a 2013 C-max that has an impeccable service history with 165k miles for around 3 grand . I was wondering if there was any good resources on actual failure rates of the bearings in the transmission. I know this almost certainly doesn't exist, but i would love to calculate the odds that it makes it to 200k if i keep up the good service. I know that there are a few reports of government agencies having 4 of these and a few fail, but I doubt there is a good database of failures with a high number of entries(IE someone who complains that their transmission failed at 40k is going to be able to be found, vs someone whose transmission is doing just fine at 220k might not comment on it). Are any of you crazy enough to have scraped together data from a bunch of C-max's to see which ones were still on the road, what mileage they were at,  and what the actual failure rate would be etc? I think by now that the 2013's would be pretty much un-economical to repair. 

[C-MaxA2]

This is a common question.

 

I'd recommend you do a query ' 'transmission failures 2013' in the search box in the upper right (in the black area - do a pull down and limit your query to 'this forum').  Good starting point.  The 8 year / 100k warranty has run out at 165k so...

[plus 3 golfer]

And since the warranty is 8 yrs / 100k miles, my guess is most owners who had their transmissions replaced under warranty aren't on forums. Only Ford knows the answer to the failure rate.

 

ConsumerReports reports reliability data which is gathered from owners via surveys and maybe helpful.  It shows 2013  "transmission major" reliability (transmission rebuild or replacement, torque converter, clutch replacement). as Average, 2014 and 2015 as above average, and 2016 and beyond as excellent.  You can draw your own conclusions.   CR's ratings are relative to all transmissions whether covered under warranty or not.      

Edited May 7, 2020 by Plus 3 Golfer

[fbov]

4 hours ago, meh said:

... I know that there are a few reports of government agencies having 4 of these and a few fail ...

To be specific, it was a 160K test, but not all made it:

- 3 of 4 Hybrids failed, all at about 100K miles.

- 0 of 4 Energis failed. 

 

At 165K, you're well past the typical failure point, and it's the configuration that didn't show a high failure rate. As I recall, Energi has a direct-drive oil pump, because it can't rely on the engine-driven one in the hybrid. Not much to worry about. 

 

Stay well,

Frank

[SnowStorm]

My 2013 SE transmission failed at 172k miles after making a faint noise for, maybe, 50k miles.  My suggestions are:

1. Listen for any strange sounds; either as described here or, in my case, a faint whirring sound around 35 mph in EV mode that would start and stop as I pressed and released the accelerator.  For this test, don't accelerate hard enough to kick on the ICE.
2. Check to see if the transmission fluid was changed at 150k miles as specified.  If so, find out who did it and see if they can tell you the color of the old fluid.  If it was quite black, there may be a bad transfer shaft which can wear away the aluminum on internal surfaces.  If the fluid was still rather clear and reddish, then there is likely no wear happening.  The problem is that I don't really know what the fluid looks like at 150k miles from a good transmission.  Mine was quite black and new fluid is clear with a reddish color.
3. Have it checked for fluid level and lack of any leakage per this TSB.

If the above items are all good, then I would think you have a good chance of hitting 200k (no guarantees!).  My belief is that the problem involves an abrupt failure where something slips out of place on the transfer shaft after which noises begin and parts start wearing out.  If it never slips, then you don't have the problem.  Its not like things are wearing out from day one.

[plus 3 golfer]

In the INL testing, 4 2013 Fusion Energis were also tested along with the 4 C-Max Energis to about 160k miles. 0 of the 8 Energi transmissions failed. 
 

Also, Ford sent customers a note dated November 9, 2015 about CSP 14b07 clearly stating “under certain driving conditions, the transfer gear assembly bearing may fail prematurely” (see below).  IMO, it is clear that the likelihood of failure is greater if the car is operated under certain driving conditions as opposed to other driving conditions.  Thus, the mileage at failure likely could vary widely among vehicles.  So, even though a transmission has 165k miles on it, I wouldn’t bet the home it will make 200k miles.  I might bet $3k though.  
 

Do you know if transmission has been replaced (do you have service records)?

 

"REASON FOR THIS PROGRAM

Under certain driving conditions, the transfer shaft gear assembly bearing may fail prematurely. This can result in thumping, rubbing, or grinding noises from the transmission, and may be accompanied by the illumination of the powertrain fault indicator (wrench light) in the instrument cluster."

[ptjones]

I do have over 150k mi. on my second trans, got 98k mi. out of my first one. I'm wondering how long do owners think a trans should last? In fifty years I have never had a FORD past 100k mi. which I considered a life expectation for a car. With 250k miles on my CMAX I feel like I got an extra free CMAX, I definitely got my moneys worth.?

 

Paul

[SnowStorm]

3 hours ago, ptjones said:

I'm wondering how long do owners think a trans should last? In fifty years I have never had a FORD past 100k mi. which I considered a life expectation for a car.

Considering that this unit is totally unlike a conventional automatic (it has no clutches, gear changes, sliding parts, etc.), I bet it could go 500k or more easily.  A sensor or shaft seal could fail but the gears are always meshed and spinning on roller element bearings - nothing to really "wear out".  My old one likely ran 50k miles after the shaft "failed" with all the teeth corners knocked off one gear, a huge grove worn in the housing and a hole clear through the case.  Yet, the other bearings and gears were still almost perfect.  Ford had a problem for sure, but I still say the transmission is one of the best features of the car.  It never "shifts" (not even for reverse!); just smoothly and continually adjusts drive ratio as needed.  You go up and down mountains like they're not even there.  And you can shift between forward and reverse without stopping!

[ptjones]

The Trans has a lot of parts, motors, gears, bearings and electronics. All these parts are going to fail with time and mileage, an driver for Hotel with CMAX had 350k mi., but didn't have anymore info.  I believe the bearings are the weakest link and when they go the gears go.

 

Paul

[fbov]

19 hours ago, SnowStorm said:

...nothing to really "wear out" ...

 

16 hours ago, ptjones said:

... I believe the bearings are the weakest link and when they go the gears go.

When there are moving parts, there's always something to wear. However, I think we have a good model for the expected wear in rear differentials, as they're also simple gear mesh and bearing systems. I blew a diff in my first car, due to a leak. Can't blame that on the gears, and I suspect we've learned a lot since 1970, making these type systems extremely reliable. On the non-moving side, there's nothing immature. Locomotives were hybrids for decades before Prius integrated the power split drivetrain. I'm with @SnowStorm at 500K wearout; my Volvo's never broke (max was 330K miles; but it dissolved). 

 

I'd expect the engine to fail first. Frequent cold start/run and lots of fuel in the oil are not a good combination. 

 

Stay well,

Frank

Edited May 9, 2020 by fbov

[energicolo]

Just took my 2013 Energi in the dealership to fix a bad wheel bearing and went ahead with the 150K transmission fluid change a bit early (I'm at 127K miles). They said the old fluid looked good--no metal shavings, etc. That's a huge relief, as I really enjoy the Energi and would like to keep it for several more years while new PHEV and EV options come down the line.

[hunt3rj2]

The core concept of the power split device/eCVT transmission is extremely simple and durable as others have said. The Priuses out there have never, ever had issues with transmissions despite long fluid change intervals or no fluid change interval at all. The Ford hybrids that used an Aisin eCVT were not known for transmission failures. The HF35's problem is entirely down to poor execution on the part of Ford. I would have to check the EPC to be sure but I'm willing to bet that the 2013-2016 MY cars have different part numbers for transmission components compared to 2017+ MY, they explicitly say that 8/2015 is the cutoff for the cars that could be affected by transmission failures.

[grege]

2018 titanium since new and I'd swear my cvt is one of the original HF35s!!!  Meaning at 36,000 miles, there are low rumbling/growling noises emanating from it especially when coasting.  Ford said it was the half shaft and replaced that.  Nope, guess again.  That noise is sometimes overrun by brake rotor scraping noises that only get worse, so will likely replace rotors and pads before to much more time passes.   

 

Greg

[Cmax lover]

On 5/7/2020 at 2:01 PM, meh said:

HI everyone,  Just to preface this, I'm currently looking at a 2013 C-max that has an impeccable service history with 165k miles for around 3 grand . I was wondering if there was any good resources on actual failure rates of the bearings in the transmission. I know this almost certainly doesn't exist, but i would love to calculate the odds that it makes it to 200k if i keep up the good service. I know that there are a few reports of government agencies having 4 of these and a few fail, but I doubt there is a good database of failures with a high number of entries(IE someone who complains that their transmission failed at 40k is going to be able to be found, vs someone whose transmission is doing just fine at 220k might not comment on it). Are any of you crazy enough to have scraped together data from a bunch of C-max's to see which ones were still on the road, what mileage they were at,  and what the actual failure rate would be etc? I think by now that the 2013's would be pretty much un-economical to repair. 

My son has a 2013 C max SEL and has 104,000 on it. His transmission just went out and Ford will not do anything about it since it is 4000 miles over warranty. On the inside of the door it will say date of manufacture. His date was 8/12. Also if there is a B in the Vin number that’s a certain transmission that is bad.Also if there is a B in the Vin number that’s a certain transmission that is bad.

[cr08]

On 9/22/2022 at 11:04 PM, Cmax lover said:

Also if there is a B in the Vin number that’s a certain transmission that is bad.Also if there is a B in the Vin number that’s a certain transmission that is bad.

 

Citation needed. Do you have any further info or leads on where this is from or documented? So far this has been undocumented anywhere in the community.

[ptjones]

On 9/22/2022 at 11:04 PM, Cmax lover said:

My son has a 2013 C max SEL and has 104,000 on it. His transmission just went out and Ford will not do anything about it since it is 4000 miles over warranty. On the inside of the door it will say date of manufacture. His date was 8/12. Also if there is a B in the Vin number that’s a certain transmission that is bad.Also if there is a B in the Vin number that’s a certain transmission that is bad.

I went 175k miles on my second trans and was still running on a 2013 CMAX, first one lasted 98k.

 

Paul